Page 174 - XXIII Prêmio Tesouro Nacional 2018

Tema – Equilíbrio, transparência e planejamento fiscal de médio e longo prazo – Diego Pitta de Jesus

Priori Baseline
Priori Dist. Priori Média Des. Padr. Média Post. MDP Inf. MDP Sup.
σ
A Gama inversa 0.01 2 0.0118 0.0079 0.0153
σ
r Gama inversa 0.01 2 0.0091 0.0023 0.0169
σ
tr Gama inversa 0.01 2 0.0221 0.0173 0.0266
σ
I Gama inversa 0.01 2 0.0089 0.0022 0.0168
σ
L Gama inversa 0.01 2 0.0084 0.0023 0.0157
σ
w Gama inversa 0.01 2 0.0093 0.0023 0.0173
µ
p Beta 0.50 0.02 0.3058 0.2768 0.3360
µ
i Beta 0.50 0.02 0.3021 0.2697 0.3401
φ
R Beta 0.80 0.10 0.8436 0.7591 0.9459
φ
π Normal 1.50 0.50 1.4539 1.0432 1.9279
φ
Y Normal 0.125 0.05 0.0729 0.0293 0.1153
α Normal 0.30 0.05 0.1526 0.0947 0.2040

Fonte: Elaboração dos autores.

tabela 2-b – reSultadoS da eStimação bayeSiana (parâmetroS)

EC 95 Regra alternativa
Média Post. MDP Inf. MDP Sup. Média Post. MDP Inf. MDP Sup.
ρ 0.9945 0.9921 0.9969 0.9969 0.9953 0.9983
A
ρ r 0.9596 0.9390 0.9798 0.9341 0.9284 0.9402
ρ tr 0.9424 0.9163 0.9620 0.9363 0.9231 0.9562
ρ I 0.9983 0.9974 0.9994 0.9985 0.9977 0.9994
ρ L 0.9495 0.9196 0.9817 0.9372 0.9297 0.9493
ρ w 0.9611 0.9384 0.9830 0.9105 0.8986 0.9225
σ A 0.0125 0.0081 0.0166 0.0138 0.0095 0.0177
σ r 0.0096 0.0022 0.0179 0.0099 0.0021 0.0203

σ tr 0.0052 0.0024 0.0078 0.0069 0.0025 0.0119
σ I 0.0090 0.0023 0.0169 0.0090 0.0023 0.0180
σ L 0.0082 0.0023 0.0148 0.0082 0.0023 0.0149
σ w 0.0095 0.0022 0.0170 0.0092 0.0022 0.0179
µ p 0.3083 0.2814 0.3358 0.2832 0.2665 0.2935
µ 0.3104 0.2858 0.3348 0.3273 0.3196 0.3338
i
φ 0.7872 0.7351 0.8348 0.6549 0.5762 0.7319
R

172 Finanças Públicas – XXIII Prêmio Tesouro Nacional – 2018